Housing inventory, demographics and equity

July 20, 2020 by Fred Allebach

Sonoma Valley has 350 deed-restricted Affordable Housing (AH) units already built, with 88 units under construction or done – for a total of 448 Affordable units in the Valley. There will potentially be 166 more with the Verano Family Apartments and the Milestone project, both in the Springs. This makes a possible total of 614 Affordable units for the 38,000 people within five miles of the Plaza, not close to enough to meet General Plan, equity, and climate goals that those who work here can live here. 

The city has 233 out of 448 total built or near-built units in the Valley, more than 50%. Credit to the city. With 166 potential units, the Springs would jump ahead to 381 vs. 233 for the city, but this only if Verano Family Apartments and Milestone project are approved at currently proposed numbers, or at all. 

According to this source, the Sonoma Valley urban population is 32,000, including the 11,000+ population of the city. This contiguous urban cluster is served by the city, the county, and by Valley Special Districts, such as fire, school, water, sanitation, hospital, and police. The urban area includes unincorporated east side residential areas, the Eighth Street East industrial area down to the sewage treatment plant, the Temelec complex, and the Springs. Some may add Eldridge and Glen Ellen.

The Springs urban service area has approximately twice the population of Sonoma. In total, the Sonoma Valley contiguous urban area would be the fourth largest city in the county after Windsor.

With the Springs Specific Plan (SSP), the county’s Housing Sites proposed zoning changes, plus Verano Family Apartments and Milestone, there is the potential that the Springs and adjacent unincorporated areas will quickly outstrip the city for an equitable proportion of Valley Affordable Housing. Given population spread alone, it’s fair to have more AH in the Springs and unincorporated areas. Given resources, wealth, administrative capacity, potential geographic area, and a marked racial/ ethnic imbalance, the city could and should take on more AH.

The Springs has the added X-factor of being designated as an economic opportunity zone, by the Trump administration. Poorer areas attract “investment” for tax write-offs, and have little political power or effective representation to fend off changes whose primary purpose is not to bring a net social and/or environmental good. Sonoma by contrast has accumulated advantages that allow it to effectively protect its interests, i.e. to not change. 

It’s not likely that any high or medium density development by market rate developers in the city or unincorporated areas will contribute any more than the minimum inclusionary requirement for Affordable units. This is not enough to correct current overall imbalances. What will happen with AH production and potential high density upzoning through various local planning processes remains to be seen. Add regional Covid-19 Sonoma County real estate inflation, the end of the eviction moratorium, the end of extra unemployment money, and the Trump administration choking off Affordable Housing tax credit financing, and things are not looking good for the little guy or for Affordable Housing.

Footnote: Affordable Housing with capital letters means deed-restricted. Deed-restricted means rents are pegged to a percentage of the area median income, 30%, 60%, 80% for example. For an explanation of income limits and rents, click here. For an analysis of how gentrification hurts the working class, click here.