Thought experiment: food and housing insecurity and VMT carbon impacts

 

Thought experiment on food and housing insecurity in Sonoma Valley, automobile carbon emissions, and global warming,  

 

The lower, urban Sonoma Valley has @35,000 people, @10,000 in Sonoma and @ 25,000 in the unincorporated area.

 

Almost all working class renters in Sonoma Valley are highly cost burdened for housing. According to Generation Housing, there are five low wage jobs in Sonoma for every lower income housing unit.

 

A recent study shows that 8000 people in Sonoma Valley are food insecure. Food insecure people cannot afford inflated Sonoma Valley food prices. If they have a car they will likely travel out of Valley to shop for better prices: Grocery Outlet, Costco, WalMart, Winco etc.

 

According ti the US Census 2020 American Community Survey, the Latino Springs has @2,500 households with a less than 80% state median household income. This qualifies as a DUC, or disadvantaged unincorporated community. This DUC adds up to between 5000 and 8000 people, a cohort that likely has a strong overlay with the 8000 Valley people who have Valley food insecurity.

 

Anyone with a car from Valley lower-income cohorts will not shop for food in Sonoma Valley at all. The prices here are laughably high, especially with current inflation and food costs up by @ 50%   Since Kim’s 2015 Sun article, not much has changed.

 

When people have to drive out-of-valley to shop for affordable food, the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) add up to an average carbon cost of .77 pounds of carbon per mile.  

 

Any lower income household that does shop for food in the Valley, by choice or not, will be heavily cost burdened by inflated food prices in addition to already being heavily cost-burdened by rent and housing costs.

 

According to a Sonoma County Transportation Authority 2020 study ( https://scta.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Sonoma_TBS_2-7-2020_web.pdf ), unincorporated County resdients make 201,000 daily car trips at an average of 10.1 miles per trip.

 

The County has approx. 500,000 people and of that 150,000 live in unincorporated areas. At 25,000 people, lower/ urban Sonoma Valley makes up @ 16% of the County unincorporated population. 16% of the 201,000 daily SoCo unincorporated trips is 32,160 car trips per day.

 

Lets’s say one quarter of daily unincorporated Sonoma Valley trips are for food and people shop for food once a week, that’s 8000 trips a week for food, 32,000 trips a month, 384,000 trips a year. At 10.1 miles per trip that’s a total of 3,878,400 miles. At an average of .77 pounds of carbon per mile, that is 2,986,368 pounds of carbon in the atmosphere for having to travel out-of-Valley to find affordable food.

 

2,986,368 pounds of carbon per year in the atmosphere is the cost of Sonoma Valley protecting its “rural character” by fighting any changes that add more density, like the Hanna Center project or the Springs Specific Plan. Accounting for the essential workforce’s affordable housing needs here will add the density that will serve to justify an affordable food store like Grocery Outlet to come to Sonoma Valley. A Grocery Outlet in central Sonoma Valley could save us putting 2,986,368 pounds of carbon per year in the atmosphere.

 

Conclusion: support dense infill for as much affordable housing as we can get, by whatever means. Density and banding together is adaptive, sustainable, and survivable. 35,000 people can’t maintain a rural fantasy if it means endemic inflated prices and too high of a VMT for the essential workers who serve everyone’s needs here.    

 

https://sonomasun.com/2015/04/30/why-i-shop-at-grocery-outlet/